From Trump’s water intake to whether he’ll say “discombobulator,” prediction markets have left no stone unturned.
Tonight’s State of the Union has its own prop sheet. We dug through $17 million in combined volume to find the most bizarre markets people are actually trading before Trump takes the podium at 9 p.m. ET. While most of the markets are limited to Polymarket International, there are a handful from Kalshi.
Will Trump drink water?
Polymarket says no — 81% no, to be exact. The market has drawn $14,400 in volume with $6,200 in open interest at the time of publishing. Not huge, but there are clearly people with strong opinions about presidential hydration. The media has drawn attention to Trump’s water-drinking moments at the podium before, and his 2025 joint session ran nearly 100 minutes. Trading against a sip of water over that kind of runtime takes conviction.
Where: Trade presidential hydration on Polymarket
The “discombobulator” market
Kalshi’s mention market includes 45 words and phrases Trump might say during the address. Most are predictable: “trillion” (93%), “fraud” (88%), “hockey” (89%). Then there’s “discombobulator” at 9% — with nearly $62,000 in notional volume traded today alone. Someone created this market. Someone else traded it. Thousands of dollars have changed hands over whether the president will actually say “discombobulator” on national television. This is what financial innovation looks like.
Where: 45 words you can trade on Kalshi, including this one
JD Vance’s clapping count has gone parabolic
This morning, “100+ claps” was priced at 22%. By late afternoon it had surged to 66% with $176,000 in volume and nearly $95,000 traded today alone. It’s the most actively traded Polymarket SOTU contract by daily volume. The market seems to have collectively realized that the Vice President, seated directly behind the president for a 100-minute speech, is going to be doing a lot of standing and clapping.
Where: Count the claps on Polymarket
The handshake market collapsed into a speed trade
The Trump-Vance handshake duration market opened as a genuine uncertainty play — “no handshake” was trading at 25% last week amid speculation about tensions between the two. By this afternoon, “under 2 seconds” had surged from 49% to 80%. The market went from pricing a relationship question to pricing a biomechanical one: not whether they’d shake hands, but how quickly they’d get it over with.
Where: Time the handshake on Polymarket
Biden’s name is a near-certainty
Polymarket’s “Who will Trump name?” market has Biden at 95% — the highest-probability person in the category. Trump is more likely to say “Biden” than “Supreme Court” (77%), or “Fake News” (52%).
Where: Name-drop bingo on Polymarket
Trump’s tie: not red, not blue…just “other”
Polymarket’s tie color market has “other” leading at 68% with $56,400 in volume. The market is trading against both traditional red and blue, which means traders expect Trump to go with something like a patterned, gold, or dark tie. Eighteen people have commented on this market. Eighteen.
Where: Three colors, 18 opinions, on Polymarket
Viewership expectations are bearish
Polymarket prices “under 35 million” viewers at 65%. For reference, Trump’s 2025 joint session drew around 52 million viewers, though that was his first address after returning to office. The market seems to be pricing a meaningful dropoff now that the novelty has worn off.
Where: Ratings futures on Polymarket
“Sleepy Joe” vs. “Green New Scam”
Polymarket’s nickname market has “Green New Scam” leading at 53%, with “Sleepy Joe” at 32%. The question isn’t whether Trump will use a nickname — it’s which one. Given that Biden is no longer in office and the Green New Deal is back in the news via energy policy debates, the market’s lean makes sense. But never underestimate Trump’s attachment to the classics.
Where: 21 nicknames you can trade on Polymarket
The SOTU bingo cards look like actual parlays
Three bingo cards on Polymarket aggregate mentions, attendance, and nickname outcomes into single contracts. Card 3 leads at 56%, Card 1 at 30%, and Card 2 at 28%. They’ve combined for $34,000 in volume. It’s genuinely unclear what distinguishes the three cards from each other, but Card 3 is winning.
Where: Card 1, Card 2, and the one that’s winning on Polymarket
Everything is a market now
Somewhere between “trillion” at 93% and “Satoshi” at 2%, prediction markets have managed to quantify the full spectrum of what might happen tonight. The serious money is in mention markets and attendance ($13 million on Kalshi alone), but the margins tell you just as much about the cultural moment. We live in a time when presidential hydration is a tradeable asset.
Catch the full odds breakdown in our State of the Union odds board.
